Earthquake Information for Modesto, California

Modesto, CA has a high earthquake risk, with a total of 83 earthquakes since 1931. The USGS database shows that there is a 73.62% chance of a major earthquake within 50km of Modesto, CA within the next 50 years. The largest earthquake within 30 miles of Modesto, CA was a 4.8 Magnitude in 2021.

Risk Level:
High
Total Number of Earthquakes in Modesto since 1931 within 30 miles
83
Probability of A 5.0 Earthquake within next 50 years
73.62%

Earthquake Probability for Modesto, CA

View the probability of a major earthquake within the next 50 years in Modesto, CA.

Probability of Earthquakes Within the Next 50 Years For Magnitudes Between 5.0 and 9.2
(within 31 km/51 miles above magnitude)
MAGNITUDE
PROBABILITY
5.0
73.62%
5.1
67.52%
5.2
67.52%
5.2
61.37%
5.3
55.39%
5.4
49.71%
5.5
44.43%
5.6
39.63%
5.7
35.32%
5.8
31.50%
5.9
28.15%
6.0
25.25%
6.1
22.08%
6.2
19.34%
6.3
16.84%
6.4
14.38%
6.5
11.45%
6.6
7.01%
6.7
4.49%
6.8
2.60%
6.9
1.31%
7.0
0.20%
7.1
0.03%
7.2
0.01%
7.3
0.01%
7.4
0.00%
7.5
0.00%
7.6
0.00%
7.7
0.00%
7.8
0.00%
7.9
0.00%
8.0
0.00%
8.1
0.00%
8.2
0.00%
8.3
0.00%
8.4
0.00%
8.5
0.00%
8.6
0.00%
8.7
0.00%
8.8
0.00%
8.9
0.00%
9.0
0.00%
9.1
0.00%
9.2
0.00%